Posted on February 16, 2022 by nigel
All Putin is lacking is a Trojan Horse to legitimise a future large scale incursion into Ukraine.
The threat of war in Ukraine has exposed the ramshackle disunity of the West amidst it’s myriad interests, lacklustre commitment and chaotic response to Putin’s speculative probing of Western resolve.
The almost smug self-assured assertions borne out of CIA/ SIS intelligence reports that even named the day that the Russian Army would cross the border into Ukraine to mount an invasion will I believe come home to taunt them.
Once the invasion dates were proclaimed all Putin must do isnot take any action on that day and so undermine the reports and their source and rational behind posting them.
So while the intelligence services are basking in their ability to intercept Russian military signals it overlooks the fact that Putin is not a fool but a seasoned former intelligence officer who is surely deploying Russian Maskirovka.
In other words he may have issued communiques relating to invasion, but does anybody with an ounce of savvy really think he is so dumb as to flag up invasion to battle ready front line units until the fifty-ninth minute.
These troops are Russian !they don’t need to be put on notice 14 days before D Day so they can make wills and write long letters back to sweethearts and family back in Saint Petersburg and Novosibirsk.
This was a probe by Putin for his own purposes most likely to see the response of the West if an invasion was to take place and to ridicule them when no invasion happens.
In the meantime, the Biden Boris response was to reach for the one size fits all book of history and revert to the Kennedy response to the Cuban missile crisis back in 62.
Then Intelligence actually exposed an existential threat to the US, by exposing prepared sites and missiles based just 90 miles from Florida.
This current game of bluff is no such thing it is Russia exercising its right to conduct military drilling within her own borders and those of her close allies namely BeyloRussia.
The fact that in the process Putin and his neighbours, muscle flexing is scaring the crap out of everybody and having the desired effect of probing any possible response to an invasion.
It is also a warning to stay out of Russia’s sphere of influence ie. not just Ukraine but Belorussia, the leader of which Lukaschenko was nearly toppled last year by a pro-Western democracy movement similar to the one that saw off the pro Russian Ukrainian leader Yanukovych in 2014.
It will serve also serve as a dry run for when Russia does eventually invade Ukraine and dismember various pieces of it’s territory to provide a land corridor to the Crimea, expand Transnistria and possibly encourage Hungary to reclaim disputed territory on it’s Eastern Carpathian border with Ukraine.
If there is a similarity with the Munich crisis of 1938 then it is not to be found in the appeasement of Putin- but in his probing of the Western response to his brinkmanship.
His actions over the past month have allowed him to witness a dry run of Western response, resolve and unity.
Like the judo expert that he is, he has been probing to see when he attacks in earnest he knows how, when and where to attack.
He is seeking out the enemy’s strong points and their weak points.
The West’s shambling megaphone diplomacy has been overly bellicose and threatening, without the means to conduct anything that can deliver an adequate response to Russian military aggression and invasion.
It is clear that NATO as an entity will not deploy troops to the Ukraine should Russia invade, and therefore by the very nature of its structure it would be unlikely that individual member states would come to Ukraine’s aid unilaterally.
British troops training Ukrainian Army units in Anti -Tank weaponry were pulled out when the Russian build up reached critical mass.
Membership of NATO for Ukraine is merely theoretical as she has an ongoing insurgency war on its border with Russian backed separatists. NATO being primarily a defence organisation does not accept members who have pre-existing conflicts.
In the short-term Putin can bask in the humbling of the west and the exposure of its military limitations.
Our only hope is that relief comes by change from within Russia with a move to defenestrate Putin from his inner circle for overplaying his hand.
This could happen if Russian public opinion turned against him.
However with the Media firmly in state control presenting a not inaccurate narrative of the major Western powers characterised by a bumbling, blustering clown in Boris Johnson, an ageing vacillating Biden, a detached aloof Macron and a craven trembling Sholz the odds are not favourable.
Though in the final analysis even Putin will need some plausible Casus Belli in order to justify the mass killing of Slavs by Slavs a task not beyond the deviant imagination of such a man…. watch this space